Quantifying implicit biases in refereeing using NBA referees as a testbed
PDF Referee bias and its impact on low fans attendance at stadiums: standpoints from Ghana
Referees may also make mistakes or miss calls due to the fast-paced nature of the game, leading to the perception of bias when in reality it is simply a matter of human error. While unconscious biases can impact officiating and lead to perceived bias, it is important to acknowledge the challenges and pressures that referees face, and to work towards finding solutions that will lead to fair and impartial officiating for all. This study analyzed how Video Assistant Referee (VAR), introduced to improve the accuracy of referee decisions in football, changes the magnitude and direction of home advantage and referee bias in the Turkish Super League. To effectively analyze referees, we must develop a comprehensive strategy that considers their past performance, decision-making patterns, and potential biases. By examining these elements, we can better understand referee assignments and their influence on betting outcomes. To maximize the effectiveness of VAR (Video assistant Referee) systems in football, a comprehensive approach that emphasizes clarity and communication is vital.
As a community of sports enthusiasts and bettors, it’s crucial to recognize how these patterns impact our experiences and choices. Many studies have shown that referee bias can significantly impact the fairness of sports outcomes. As fans who crave fairness and camaraderie, we understand how crucial it is to trust the integrity of the game. The introduction of VAR has undeniably altered the rhythm and tempo of matches in unforeseen ways. Fans and players alike must adapt to the pauses that ensue during these video reviews, which can disrupt the inherent flow of the game. While moments of tension can undoubtedly elevate excitement, the anticipation created by lengthy checks may drain the energy from both players and spectators.
Table 1.
Similarly, some penalties are obvious, but many are not, as they are the result of referee interpretation5. Crowd size does not appear to be an important factor in home team points difference, but crowd density does, reducing home advantage by almost 8 points. One explanation is that a near capacity crowd (i.e., high crowd density) indicates an important match or show piece game and referees are likely to be attempting to stay neutral and more conscious of their performance.
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This is because home matches 35 and crowd noise can sway the referees’ judgment 18 and make them favor the home team more often 36. Using data from 2448 matches played in the four seasons before and after the introduction of VAR, Dufner, Schütz (14) examined the presence of HA in terms of match outcomes and referee bias indicators. HA was evident in points won, goals scored, and yellow cards given before VAR was introduced but not after VAR was implemented for any of the indicators. To summarize, I analyzed L2M and play-by-play data from the NBA to analyze a number of different implicit biases that the referees might exhibit. I started by looking at the home court bias and I found that while over the past 7 years there is a robust home court advantage, this has been in the decline over the last few years.
This can create a negative atmosphere around the game and damage the reputation of the league and its officials. Basketball is a popular and highly competitive sport that is enjoyed by millions of players and fans worldwide. One of the key factors that contributes to the excitement and drama of the game is the officiating.
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Independent t-test and hierarchical multiple regression analysis were conducted to examine the research questions. The results showed that lowly identified fans have higher perceptions of barriers to attending football matches than highly identified fans. Results also showed that team identification, team quality, and the behaviour of fans have a direct positive impact on attendance.
Baseball umpires also display how high-status players were rewarded with correct decisions even when their performances were undeserving (Kim and King, 2014). Similarly, Findlay and Ste-Marie (2004) found that rankings used to determine a Canadian skaters final placement were better when skaters were evaluated by judges who knew of the skaters positive reputation. Next I examine the net whistle gain for individual players over the seasons covered from the L2M data. I repeat the same process as for the home court referee bias, but now focusing on individual players.
I elaborate on the related literature in the last section, where I also connect this work, its findings and methods to the existing literature. One possibility is that VAR could reduce the tendency of referees to favor the home team in crucial match events and thus make the game fairer. Even though referee bias is not explicitly stated, the main aim of VAR was to “decrease injustice” in referee decisions, implying that bias may be a hidden motive for VAR implementation 33.
It’s often difficult to identify or resist before it has permeated choices made and values of right or wrong assigned. Habits, routines, and biases can all have tremendous impact on decision-making, sometimes negative but always with the effect of artificially narrowing the framework and obscuring interests and/or consequences from the view of the person choosing. Interestingly enough, as observed on the “highest bias favoring” list, the San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, and Los Angeles Rams can’t catch a break; no referees seem to give them any positive bias. On the flip side, as observed on the “highest bias against” list, the New York Giants and Indianapolis Colts seem to have it good with all referees. With this knowledge, you can leverage referee insights to increase your chances of betting success in high-stakes games.
- HA is a phenomenon where home teams are believed to have an advantage over away teams due to crowd support and familiarity with the venue.
- Which teams are being penalized the most, what type of penalties are most common, and which referees are the most biased for or against certain teams?
- The heightened physical exertion stemming from greater physical loads in football matches has elicited greater development of physical conditioning in both players and referees.
The datasets generated for this study are available on request to the corresponding author. All claims expressed in this article are solely those of roobetofficial.com the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article, or claim that may be made by its manufacturer, is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher. The home court bias has reduced since the 2020 season, which is the season of the COVID-19 pandemic. 🤝The missed penalties on the Eagles were not minor infractions; they included offensive holds, illegal use of hands, and tripping attempts. It’s almost as if life itself is inviting us to embrace difficulty—not as punishment but as a design feature.
Implicit biases occur automatically and unintentionally and are particularly present when we have to make split second decisions. One such situations appears in refereeing, where referees have to make an instantaneous decision on a potential violation. In this work I revisit and extend some of the existing work on implicit biases in refereeing. In particular, I focus on refereeing in the NBA and examine three different types of implicit bias; (i) home-vs-away bias, (ii) bias towards individual players or teams, and, (iii) racial bias. For this study, I use play-by-play data and data from the Last 2 min reports the league office releases for games that were within 5 points in the last 2 min since the 2015 season. The results indicate that the there is a bias towards the home team—particularly pronounced during the playoffs—but it has been reduced since the COVID-19 pandemic.
As stakeholders across the football community seek to strike a balance between technology and traditional officiating, the future of VAR remains a topic of intense scrutiny and discussion. Moving forward, it is imperative that governing bodies, clubs, and fans engage in open dialogue to address these controversies, ensuring that the integrity of the stunning game is upheld while adapting to the demands of modern football. It is worth noting that all the coefficients for the other variables have the intuitive correct sign. Differences in ranking have a positive explanatory power over the score, and the effect increases at a decreasing rate.
Furthermore, there is robust statistical evidence that specific players benefit from referee decisions more than expected from pure chance. However, I find no evidence of negative bias towards individual players, or towards specific teams. Error management theory (Haselton and Buss, 2000) predicts that if judgments are made under uncertainty, selection should favor making the least costly error (Haselton and Nettle, 2006). Previous empirical studies have found referee bias in favor of the home team (Sutter and Kocher, 2004; Buraimo et al., 2010), suggesting that referee decisions can be influenced by social forces. Although it was not a primary objective for the current study, the findings did not appear to support previous studies in indicating a referee bias toward home teams. Consistent with recent studies (e.g., Lago-Peñas and Gómez-López, 2016; Audrino, 2018), the present findings indicate that a home team bias is not the only potential referee bias in professional football.
Given that home court referee bias is part of the home court advantage (HCA), which has been linked to the home team fans, I wanted to examine separately the seasons during/after the COVID-19 pandemic. The NBA finished the 2020 season in a bubble with no fans, and started the 2021 season in empty arenas. In fact, most of the teams didn’t start having fans at limited capacity until the middle of that season and only reached arenas with fans closer to capacity during the playoffs. As we can see from Table 2 the home court referee bias appears to be very small, and almost have disappeared during these seasons!
This study found that home teams had significantly more points and goals than away teams before and after VAR’s introduction. This means that the HA that existed before VAR was not reduced by it and suggests that VAR is not effective in lowering HA. This study also found that home teams got fewer yellow cards and more penalties than away teams with or without VAR. This indicates some referee bias in favor of home teams in the seasons without VAR, which continued in the seasons with VAR. With the introduction of VAR, both home and away teams had fewer yellow cards and more penalties, but the number of red cards stayed the same.
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